Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 19.617169 21.311857 23.180476 25.412619 28.032202 31.042342 34.813268
2024-12-15 16.939606 19.122988 21.699907 25.029639 29.320245 34.821699 42.705218
2024-12-22 15.117328 17.538675 20.542071 24.665160 30.402234 38.510074 51.767500
2024-12-29 13.819408 16.372907 19.665957 24.415955 31.477157 42.392831 62.806070
2025-01-05 12.837678 15.468318 18.970372 24.237428 32.538541 46.501638 76.528087
2025-01-12 11.926870 14.549621 18.124561 23.675593 32.839334 49.384464 89.866589
2025-01-19 11.599638 14.378183 18.284238 24.615449 35.767774 58.144567 126.228767
2025-01-26 11.020388 13.797253 17.777965 24.412656 36.623110 63.058568 159.490270
2025-02-02 10.588729 13.387949 17.479476 24.494813 38.013096 69.857744 216.633716
2025-02-09 10.234712 13.061248 17.269999 24.688080 39.658761 78.258078 319.376332
2025-02-16 9.890371 12.722457 17.007331 24.744588 41.026999 86.828553 503.236536
2025-02-23 9.506134 12.298717 16.573271 24.431423 41.502738 93.003648 791.833908
2025-03-02 9.208267 11.992960 16.313631 24.426573 42.744164 103.193227 1900.861961
2025-03-09 8.895544 11.647118 15.962908 24.206948 43.426364 112.077225 9741.733205
2025-03-16 8.597477 11.308488 15.600900 23.925005 43.897908 120.811581 NaN
2025-03-23 8.335496 11.013207 15.292419 23.716637 44.530111 131.427886 NaN
2025-03-30 8.101686 10.751007 15.023326 23.559533 45.280101 144.143702 NaN
2025-04-06 7.824628 10.408113 14.595004 23.029420 44.849571 149.367405 NaN
2025-04-13 7.787034 10.445535 14.830591 23.928721 48.953144 196.374798 NaN
2025-04-20 7.589499 10.215029 14.576684 23.736608 49.593600 217.595215 NaN
2025-04-27 7.442561 10.060775 14.450397 23.815553 51.179934 256.098137 NaN
2025-05-04 7.318445 9.938508 14.374351 24.000129 53.218762 314.130475 NaN
2025-05-11 7.183917 9.793372 14.247695 24.054135 54.827571 381.993197 NaN